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Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.4%Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 50.8%Based on 33K games
0%50.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 50.8%
Outcome Distribution
47.5%5.7%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nd3
Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation
Analyzen=33K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 50.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 50.8%), based on 33K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.5% win rate (3,162 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.9% win rate (4,330 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (5,009 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.5% win rate (5,328 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (4,784 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.2% win rate (3,821 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (3,006 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (2,287 games)
  • 2500+: 50.3% win rate (846 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in UltraBullet (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 30.2% win rate (30 games)
  • Bullet: 47.6% win rate (7,274 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (17,308 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (7,597 games)
  • Classical: 42.8% win rate (364 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (662 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,374 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (996 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,142 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,154 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (921 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,377 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (1,039 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,626 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (113 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (973 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (2,561 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,161 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (86 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (808 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,302 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (673 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (633 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,979 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (379 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (799 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (1,294 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (443 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (385 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 49.5% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.9%) outperforms Classical (42.8%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.5%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.5%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 846 Lichess games. Average game length is 48 moves with a 11.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.6%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.5%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.8%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 38.6%-47.1%) win rate for white (364 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.