Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation
302 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.6%.
Measured over 302 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 302 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 302
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.2%
- Draws
- 5.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 27.2% at 1000-1199, 50.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (43 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (49 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 19.6% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.3% expected score (53 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation scores 41.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 36.4% and 45.6% — from 302 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 302+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation win rate?
Playing the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation, Black wins 38.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 302 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation perform best?
The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 45.8% (58 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation?
The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 37.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 58.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 170 Lichess games.
Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation a good opening?
The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 38.1% of its games and loses 56.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.