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Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.0%

40%55%
Floor45.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.5%.

Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
28K
Best context
48.9% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
42.6% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 46.2%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (253 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (307 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (744 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (571 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (166 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (1,125 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (278 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (63 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (1,987 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,962 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (470 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (176 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (2,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (2,311 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (555 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.8% expected score (86 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,689 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (1,897 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (397 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (2,678 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (1,085 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (2,514 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (375 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation scores 46.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.5% and 46.5% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate?

Playing the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 47.2% (2.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.5% in Blitz (9.7K games) against 43.2% in Rapid (2.1K games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 648 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.2%, draws 7.7% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 44.0%, draws 1.7% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 438 Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.0%, draws 6.4% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.7% of its games and loses 51.8%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.