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Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation

20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.5%Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 46.1%Based on 20K games
0%45.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.9% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
41.9%7.1%51.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...O-O
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation
Analyzen=20K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.1%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 45.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.9% and 46.1%), based on 20K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 29% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 29.4% win rate (24 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.7% win rate (74 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (282 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.7% win rate (972 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.1% win rate (2,749 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.5% win rate (5,847 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.4% win rate (6,055 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.4% win rate (3,247 games)
  • 2500+: 32.3% win rate (396 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 42.8% win rate (5,232 games)
  • Blitz: 42.3% win rate (11,503 games)
  • Rapid: 39.1% win rate (2,685 games)
  • Classical: 30.3% win rate (215 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (118 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (762 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (1,269 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (3,707 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (772 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (1,311 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (3,653 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (1,034 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,804 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (250 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (119 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 20K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (6.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.1%) outperforms Classical (54.7%) by -2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a sharpness score of 92.9 (decisive), meaning 92.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 44.0%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 282 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 972 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 396 Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 19.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.7%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.2%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.7%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-60.3%) win rate for white (215 Lichess games). Draw rate is 15.0%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.