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Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.8%Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.5%Based on 16K games
0%49.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.6%8.3%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nc6
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.3%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 49.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 50.5%), based on 16K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (58 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.7% win rate (126 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.9% win rate (298 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.4% win rate (651 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (1,700 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.0% win rate (3,277 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.5% win rate (4,506 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.1% win rate (3,999 games)
  • 2500+: 32.4% win rate (1,004 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (4,496 games)
  • Blitz: 46.5% win rate (8,999 games)
  • Rapid: 41.6% win rate (1,982 games)
  • Classical: 41.1% win rate (141 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (126 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (217 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (105 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (509 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (226 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (677 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (2,084 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (482 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (945 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,888 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (625 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (2,212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (408 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (602 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (351 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (651 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.2%) outperforms Classical (44.6%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-61.7%) win rate for white, based on 126 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 43.2%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 298 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.3%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 651 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 45.1%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.9%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.6%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 50 moves with a 19.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.4%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.9%) win rate for white (9.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.0%-49.7%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.6%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 37.8%-51.4%) win rate for white (141 Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.4%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.