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Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.9%Based on 47K games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.9%
Outcome Distribution
46.0%6.9%47.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bd6
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.9%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 49.9%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 31% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.1% win rate (29 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.7% win rate (155 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.3% win rate (484 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (1,898 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.4% win rate (6,753 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.2% win rate (14,455 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (14,167 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.7% win rate (7,568 games)
  • 2500+: 33.8% win rate (1,552 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (12,834 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (28,199 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (5,597 games)
  • Classical: 41.1% win rate (428 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (82 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (225 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.4% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (781 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (170 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,826 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (4,265 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (586 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (76 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,877 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (9,498 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (1,881 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (198 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,289 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (8,621 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,161 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (96 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (2,803 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (4,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (673 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (943 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (555 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Continuations (1)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit
54.7%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.3% win rate for white (7.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.0%) outperforms Classical (46.2%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 43.6%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 155 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 42.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 484 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 20.4% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.7%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.5%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-46.7%) win rate for white (5.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 42.3%-50.2%) win rate for white (428 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.7%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.