Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation
33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.8%.
Measured over 33K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 16.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 33K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 33K
- Best context
- 50.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 42 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 83.4%
- Draws
- 16.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 42.3% at 0-999, 45.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (43 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (60 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (174 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (227 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.1% expected score (52 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (612 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,368 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.2% expected score (227 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,071 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (4,320 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (783 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (84 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,803 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (6,401 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,395 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (75 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,029 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (5,358 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (758 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (2,839 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (2,934 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (421 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (71 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation scores 46.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.9% and 46.8% — from 33K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 33K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate?
Playing the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation, Black wins 38.0%, draws 16.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 33K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation perform best?
The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.0% (9.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (21K games) against 44.1% in Rapid (3.7K games).
How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation?
The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation has a sharpness score of 83.4 (moderately decisive), meaning 83.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 123 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 469 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.2%, draws 7.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.5%, draws 9.4% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 15.8%, draws 56.0% and loses 28.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 60 moves.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 36.1%, draws 22.6% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.4%, draws 14.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 36.3%, draws 15.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.
What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 23.5%, draws 32.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 303 Lichess games.
Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation a good opening?
The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 38.0% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.