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Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit

515 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.1%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 61.6%Based on 515 games
0%58.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 61.6%
Outcome Distribution
54.7%6.7%38.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Bg4
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit
Analyzen=515
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.7%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 58.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 61.6%), based on 515 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.4% · Bullet best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 69% → 44%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 69.2% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • 1400-1599: 36.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1600-1799: 59.7% win rate (58 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.6% win rate (113 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (155 games)
  • 2200-2499: 60.4% win rate (140 games)
  • 2500+: 43.9% win rate (27 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (60%), worst in Blitz (51%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • Bullet: 59.6% win rate (162 games)
  • Blitz: 51.2% win rate (310 games)
  • Rapid: 59.6% win rate (43 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199——
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 65.3% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (80 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 67.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 515 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 60.4% win rate for white (140 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (59.6%) outperforms Blitz (51.2%) by 8.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-62.2%) win rate for white, based on 113 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 43.0%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 155 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 9.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 60.4% (90% CI: 53.6%-67.1%) win rate for white, based on 140 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 59.6% (90% CI: 53.3%-65.9%) win rate for white (162 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-55.9%) win rate for white (310 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-58.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.