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Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit

515 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score42.0%Range (90% confident): 38.4% – 45.6%Based on 515 games
0%42.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 38.4% – 45.6%
Outcome Distribution
38.6%6.7%54.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Bg4
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit
Analyzen=515
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.7%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 42.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 38.4% and 45.6%), based on 515 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -23.7% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.4% · Bullet best · Blitz worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 23% → 40%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 23.1% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1600-1799: 36.1% win rate (58 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.5% win rate (113 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.6% win rate (155 games)
  • 2200-2499: 33.6% win rate (140 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (27 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (41%), worst in Rapid (35%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid

  • Bullet: 35.8% win rate (162 games)
  • Blitz: 40.6% win rate (310 games)
  • Rapid: 34.8% win rate (43 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199——
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999——
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 32.3% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 515 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 60.4% win rate for white (140 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (59.6%) outperforms Blitz (51.2%) by 8.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a sharpness score of 93.3 (decisive), meaning 93.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-62.2%) win rate for white, based on 113 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 43.0%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 155 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 9.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 60.4% (90% CI: 53.6%-67.1%) win rate for white, based on 140 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 59.6% (90% CI: 53.3%-65.9%) win rate for white (162 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-55.9%) win rate for white (310 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-58.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.