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Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation

88K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.7%Range (90% confident): 55.4% – 56.0%Based on 88K games
0%55.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.4% – 56.0%
Outcome Distribution
52.5%6.4%41.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bd3
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation
Analyzen=88K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 55.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.4% and 56.0%), based on 88K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 58% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 57.8% win rate (1,692 games)
  • 1000-1199: 58.3% win rate (2,480 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.0% win rate (3,278 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.2% win rate (5,629 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (10,892 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.8% win rate (18,314 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.9% win rate (21,680 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.5% win rate (18,568 games)
  • 2500+: 49.5% win rate (5,689 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (57%), worst in Blitz (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.1% win rate (174 games)
  • Bullet: 52.7% win rate (25,006 games)
  • Blitz: 52.1% win rate (51,271 games)
  • Rapid: 53.6% win rate (11,077 games)
  • Classical: 56.7% win rate (694 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (448 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (798 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (440 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (892 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (1,118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (454 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (1,439 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 67.9% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (2,720 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (3,130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (6,176 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.9% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (4,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (2,684 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (238 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (4,547 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (14,042 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (2,935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (5,904 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (11,108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (1,500 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (2,874 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (2,692 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (109 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation
41.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
38.0%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 88K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 58.3% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.1%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 57.8% (90% CI: 55.9%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 58.3% (90% CI: 56.6%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 55.6%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.1%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 14.9% draw rate.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-58.3%) win rate for white (174 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.3%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.5%) win rate for white (51K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.4%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 53.6%-59.8%) win rate for white (694 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.6%.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.