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Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation

88K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.7%

45%60%
Floor55.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.0%.

Measured over 88K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 88K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
88K
Best context
61.7% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Worst context
54.0% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
93.6%
Draws
6.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.7% at 0-999, 63.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (448 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (798 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (440 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (892 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (1,118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (454 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,167 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (1,439 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 67.9% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (70 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (2,720 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (74 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (3,130 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (6,176 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.9% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (4,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (11,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (2,684 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (238 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (4,547 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (14,042 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (2,935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (5,904 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (11,108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (1,500 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (2,874 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (2,692 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (109 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Petrov's Defense
49.1%
Variations (5)
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit
46.5%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation
58.6%
Analyze Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation scores 55.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.4% and 56.0% — from 88K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
88K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate?

Playing the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation, White wins 52.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 88K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation perform best?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 59.4% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 55.7% in Blitz (51K games) against 56.9% in Rapid (11K games).

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 57.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 58.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 57.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 56.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 8.5% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.5%, draws 14.9% and loses 35.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 174 Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.1%, draws 7.1% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 56.7%, draws 10.6% and loses 32.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.0%. It rests on 694 Lichess games.

Is the Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation a good opening?

The Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.5% of its games and loses 41.1%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.