Philidor Defense
37 variations · 46M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
47.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 46M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 46M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #36 of 62
- Games in this context
- 46M
- Best context
- 54.4% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 38.7% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Variations measured
- 37
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.5% at 0-999, 39.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (3,630 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (657,166 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,593,534 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (742,144 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (6,017 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (8,870 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,228,858 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (3,042,515 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (1,194,056 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (24,939 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (19,621 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,795,329 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (4,780,024 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,939,201 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (65,663 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (17,163 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (2,106,471 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (5,849,810 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,454,702 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (134,925 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (8,497 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,974,624 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (5,353,353 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (2,149,167 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (111,774 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (4,963 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (1,502,786 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (3,246,216 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (1,190,273 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (38,985 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (2,855 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (833,918 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (1,098,809 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (282,804 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (5,026 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (1,382 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (402,750 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (275,958 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (34,769 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (451 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (125 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (95,017 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (34,559 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (1,235 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 24.2% expected score (70 games)
37 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense family scores 47.7% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 47.7% — from 46M Lichess games across 37 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 46M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense win rate?
Across the Philidor Defense's 37 variations, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 46M rated games from Lichess.
How many Philidor Defense variations are there?
37 Philidor Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense perform best?
The Philidor Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.2% (3.0M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Philidor Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Philidor Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.6% in Blitz (25M games) against 46.6% in Rapid (10.0M games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense?
Philidor Defense games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Philidor Defense a good opening family?
The Philidor Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 45.6% and loses 50.2%. Results differ between its 37 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.