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Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation

722K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.dxe5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.4%

40%55%
Floor44.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.5%.

Measured over 722K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 722K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
722K
Best context
53.9% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Worst context
35.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.9 · Trap factor: +9.3 · 722K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.1% expected score (78 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (19,913 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (51,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (27,478 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (232 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (32,814 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (54,899 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (30,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (866 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (745 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (47,058 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (58,314 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (27,953 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (1,550 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (1,270 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (53,321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (58,657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (22,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.1% expected score (1,946 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (1,199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (48,086 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (42,114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (14,147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (998 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (693 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (38,203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (25,817 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (5,938 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (303 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (372 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (22,351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (12,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (1,873 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (155 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (9,344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,785 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (2,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (344 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit
50.6%
Continuations (3)
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Klein Variation
52.8%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation
52.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation
51.2%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation scores 44.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.3% and 44.5% — from 722K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
722K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Black wins 42.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 722K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 46.7% (37K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.6% in Blitz (308K games) against 42.7% in Rapid (130K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 119K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 136K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 137K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.8% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.8%, draws 6.8% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.9%, draws 8.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 273K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 41.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 308K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 130K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 36.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.9%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.1% of its games and loses 53.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.