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Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit

547K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.0%

40%55%
Floor47.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.1%.

Measured over 547K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 547K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
547K
Best context
50.7% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
42.2% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
97.2%
Draws
2.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −0.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.3% at 0-999, 45.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (8,775 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (17,261 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (5,415 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (84 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (17,717 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (39,844 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (11,754 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (155 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (146 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (25,765 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (54,991 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (16,620 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (339 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (32,759 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (56,861 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (15,893 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (662 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (33,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (62,838 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (11,146 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (687 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (31,651 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (49,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (8,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (225 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (17,820 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (16,059 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (2,837 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 19.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (5,227 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (1,497 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.1% expected score (185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (277 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 48.1% — from 547K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
547K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit, Black wins 46.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 547K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (108K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.5% in Blitz (299K games) against 45.6% in Rapid (73K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit?

The Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 98K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 106K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 108K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 90K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 285 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.7%, draws 1.0% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 559 Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 173K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 299K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 73K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.6% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.