Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
751K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 751K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 751K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 751K
- Best context
- 55.2% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.4%
- Draws
- 4.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.6% at 0-999, 41.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (2,259 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (4,216 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,553 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (6,685 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (8,936 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (3,610 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (73 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (65 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (13,358 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (16,884 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (6,704 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (204 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (170 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (23,839 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (33,896 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (10,253 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (724 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (242 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (37,420 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (59,306 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (17,415 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (1,314 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (373 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (46,368 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (78,271 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (16,600 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (1,156 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (363 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (53,894 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (80,620 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (10,480 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (405 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (218 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (79,647 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (72,906 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (4,616 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (96 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (36,389 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (19,209 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (359 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation scores 51.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.0% — from 751K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 751K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Black wins 49.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 751K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.0% (143K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.1% in Blitz (374K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (72K games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 50.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 143K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 157K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 44.4%, draws 7.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 300K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 374K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 72K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 47.0%, draws 7.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.6% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.