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Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit

579K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 53.4% – 53.6%Based on 579K games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.4% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
51.7%3.5%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Bc4
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
Analyzen=579K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 53.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.4% and 53.6%), based on 579K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.4% · Breakpoint: 2500+

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.1% · UltraBullet best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.5% win rate (8,029 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.1% win rate (25,928 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.7% win rate (65,423 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.3% win rate (120,274 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.5% win rate (159,209 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.9% win rate (133,839 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.4% win rate (55,035 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.1% win rate (10,896 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (854 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (61%), worst in Blitz (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.6% win rate (734 games)
  • Bullet: 51.7% win rate (136,079 games)
  • Blitz: 51.5% win rate (335,111 games)
  • Rapid: 52.3% win rate (104,453 games)
  • Classical: 52.8% win rate (3,110 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,209 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (3,754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (8,506 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (14,014 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (3,322 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (183 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (17,731 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (36,887 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (10,405 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (217 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.3% expected score (194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (25,058 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (72,065 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (22,186 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (771 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 66.2% expected score (196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (30,283 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (95,241 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (32,337 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (1,152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (26,786 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (79,907 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (26,290 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (784 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (17,035 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (29,724 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (8,111 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (144 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (6,664 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (3,478 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (736 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (807 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 579K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (55K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (60.6%) outperforms Classical (52.8%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit?

The Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 120K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 159K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 134K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 854 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 60.6% (90% CI: 57.6%-63.5%) win rate for white (734 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white (136K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (335K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.6%) win rate for white (104K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.3%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.