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Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit

579K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.5%

45%60%
Floor53.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.6%.

Measured over 579K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 579K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
579K
Best context
60.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
49.9% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +8.4% · Breakpoint: 2500+

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.1% · UltraBullet best · Blitz worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 53.7%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,209 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (3,754 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (8,506 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (14,014 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (3,322 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (183 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (17,731 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (36,887 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (10,405 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (217 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.3% expected score (194 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (25,058 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (72,065 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (22,186 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (771 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 66.2% expected score (196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (30,283 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (95,241 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (32,337 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (1,152 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (72 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (26,786 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (79,907 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (26,290 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (784 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (17,035 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (29,724 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (8,111 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.0% expected score (144 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (6,664 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (3,478 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (736 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (807 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Lopez Countergambit
50.6%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit scores 53.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.4% and 53.6% — from 579K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
579K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 579K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (55K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.4% in Blitz (335K games) against 54.5% in Rapid (104K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit?

The Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 120K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 159K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 134K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 854 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 60.6%, draws 0.9% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.1%. It rests on 734 Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 136K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 335K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 104K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 52.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.7% of its games and loses 44.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.