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Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation

6.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.7%Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 52.7%Based on 6.1M games
0%52.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 52.7%
Outcome Distribution
50.5%4.4%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=6.1M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 52.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 52.7%), based on 6.1M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.8% win rate (161,215 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.7% win rate (405,798 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.7% win rate (849,056 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (1,381,198 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (1,591,788 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.2% win rate (1,150,113 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.2% win rate (455,028 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (122,305 games)
  • 2500+: 49.4% win rate (17,838 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Bullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.8% win rate (3,386 games)
  • Bullet: 50.2% win rate (1,362,517 games)
  • Blitz: 50.4% win rate (3,551,016 games)
  • Rapid: 50.9% win rate (1,174,259 games)
  • Classical: 52.8% win rate (43,161 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (90 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (47,200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (86,354 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (27,377 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.8% expected score (261 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (110,799 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (230,198 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (63,674 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (866 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (657 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (195,843 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (495,336 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (153,829 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (3,391 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (276,636 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (810,817 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (280,409 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (12,284 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (295,841 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (950,064 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (329,812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (15,614 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (309 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (233,673 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (669,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (237,504 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (9,159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (320 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (133,099 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (248,600 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (71,534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (1,475 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (213 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (57,225 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (55,091 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (9,626 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (150 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (12,201 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (5,088 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.2% expected score (494 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 65.3% expected score (28 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.1M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (122K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (54.8%) outperforms Bullet (50.2%) by 4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 161K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 406K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 849K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 455K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 122K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.4%-56.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.3%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white (3.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-50.9%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.2%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.