Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
6.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 6.1M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.1M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.1M
- Best context
- 50.9% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 36.8% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.4% at 0-999, 40.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (90 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (47,200 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (86,354 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (27,377 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (194 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (261 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (110,799 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (230,198 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (63,674 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (866 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (657 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (195,843 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (495,336 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (153,829 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (3,391 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (1,052 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (276,636 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (810,817 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (280,409 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (12,284 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (457 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (295,841 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (950,064 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (329,812 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (15,614 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (309 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (233,673 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (669,468 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (237,504 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (9,159 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (320 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (133,099 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (248,600 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (71,534 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (1,475 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (213 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (57,225 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (55,091 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (9,626 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (150 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (12,201 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (5,088 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.9% expected score (494 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (28 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation scores 47.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.3% and 47.4% — from 6.1M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 6.1M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (161K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (3.6M games) against 46.6% in Rapid (1.2M games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation?
The Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 161K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 406K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 849K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 455K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 122K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.2%, draws 9.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 3.6M Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.2% of its games and loses 50.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.