Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit

311K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.1%Range (90% confident): 54.9% – 55.2%Based on 311K games

0%55.1%100%

Range (90% confident): 54.9% – 55.2%

Outcome Distribution

53.3%3.4%43.2%

Win

Draw

Loss

4.c3

Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit

Analyzen=311K

Avg Length32 moves

Sharpness97%

Draw Rate3.4%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 55.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.9% and 55.2%), based on 311K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.9% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 50%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (57%), worst in Blitz (53%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+					—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,771 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (2,078 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (503 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (5,148 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (7,575 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,590 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (104 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (9,720 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (19,421 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (4,465 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (70 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (115 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (13,698 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (35,424 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (10,479 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (361 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 71.5% expected score (66 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (18,434 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (44,381 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (15,101 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (405 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (44 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (19,648 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (39,192 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (11,827 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (372 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (15,411 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (18,515 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (3,859 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (62 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (6,685 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (3,167 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (371 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (740 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (50 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Philidor Defense

50.2%

Variations (5)

Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit

44.3%

Philidor Defense: Berger Variation

40.3%

Philidor Defense: Boden Variation

49.4%

Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation

50.5%

Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation

46.9%

Analyze Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 311K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (38K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (57.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (56.8%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit?

The Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.8%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 796 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 56.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-60.9%) win rate for white (387 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.6%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.0%) win rate for white (91K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.2%) win rate for white (170K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.4%-54.1%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a 57.0% (90% CI: 54.7%-59.2%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit expected score for White?