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Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit

311K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.1%

45%60%
Floor54.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.2%.

Measured over 311K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 311K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
311K
Best context
57.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
52.5% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.9% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 56.1% at 0-999, 62.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,771 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (2,078 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (503 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (5,148 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (7,575 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,590 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (9,720 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (19,421 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (4,465 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (13,698 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (35,424 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (10,479 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (361 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 71.5% expected score (66 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (18,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (44,381 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (15,101 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (405 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (19,648 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (39,192 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (11,827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (372 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (15,411 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (18,515 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (3,859 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (62 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (6,685 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (3,167 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (740 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit scores 55.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.9% and 55.2% — from 311K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
311K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit, White wins 53.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 311K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 55.9% (38K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.9% in Blitz (170K games) against 55.9% in Rapid (48K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit?

The Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 52.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 53.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.3%, draws 8.5% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 796 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 56.8%, draws 0.6% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 387 Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 91K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 170K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 57.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.3% of its games and loses 43.2%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.