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Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score59.2%Range (90% confident): 58.6% – 59.9%Based on 15K games
0%59.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 58.6% – 59.9%
Outcome Distribution
57.2%3.9%38.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.exd5
Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 59.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.6% and 59.9%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 95.9 · Trap factor: +8.2 · n=15K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 56% → 61%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.0% win rate (3,639 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.2% win rate (3,166 games)
  • 1200-1399: 58.4% win rate (2,697 games)
  • 1400-1599: 61.0% win rate (2,016 games)
  • 1600-1799: 57.4% win rate (1,574 games)
  • 1800-1999: 57.4% win rate (1,039 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.6% win rate (691 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.2% win rate (311 games)
  • 2500+: 61.0% win rate (19 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (64%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.2% win rate (45 games)
  • Bullet: 57.3% win rate (4,214 games)
  • Blitz: 56.7% win rate (6,531 games)
  • Rapid: 57.7% win rate (4,171 games)
  • Classical: 64.2% win rate (191 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (740 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (1,789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (1,105 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (628 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (1,537 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (967 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (529 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (1,200 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (916 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 67.2% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (515 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 65.1% expected score (730 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (599 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (582 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (354 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (559 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (358 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 79.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (400 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (231 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 61.0% win rate for white (2.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (64.2%) outperforms Blitz (56.7%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack?

The Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 56.0% (90% CI: 54.7%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 57.2% (90% CI: 55.7%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 58.4% (90% CI: 56.8%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 61.0% (90% CI: 59.2%-62.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 57.4% (90% CI: 55.4%-59.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 57.4% (90% CI: 54.9%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 48.5%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 691 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 47.2% (90% CI: 42.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 311 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.1%-58.6%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 56.7% (90% CI: 55.7%-57.7%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 57.7% (90% CI: 56.5%-59.0%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a 64.2% (90% CI: 58.4%-69.7%) win rate for white (191 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack is statistically favors white with a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.