Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
5.exd5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

59.2%

45%65%
Floor58.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.9%.

Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
15K
Best context
65.1% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Worst context
56.2% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 95.9 · Trap factor: +8.2 · 15K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.4% at 0-999, 63.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (740 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (1,789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (1,105 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (628 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (1,537 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (967 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (529 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (1,200 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (916 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 67.2% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (515 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 65.1% expected score (730 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (599 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (582 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (354 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (559 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 62.8% expected score (358 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 79.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (400 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (231 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack scores 59.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.6% and 59.9% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack, White wins 57.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 62.7% (2.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 58.8% in Blitz (6.5K games) against 60.0% in Rapid (4.2K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack?

The Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 56.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 57.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 58.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 61.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.7%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 57.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 38.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 57.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 38.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 691 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 311 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 57.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 56.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 57.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.0%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 64.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 31.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.2%. It rests on 191 Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Paulsen Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 57.2% of its games and loses 38.9%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.