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Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation

433K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.4%

45%55%
Floor51.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.

Measured over 433K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 433K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
433K
Best context
60.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
49.1% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.9% at 0-999, 62.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,792 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,480 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (343 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (5,222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (5,896 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (10,301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (19,311 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (4,913 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (96 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (17,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (47,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (14,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (503 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 74.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (20,134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (77,511 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (27,510 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (928 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (17,497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (76,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (27,658 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (875 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (9,123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (28,162 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (8,908 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (93 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (3,071 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (3,123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.1% expected score (825 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (335 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation scores 51.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.3% and 51.5% — from 433K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
433K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 433K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (7.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.4% in Blitz (260K games) against 51.4% in Rapid (86K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 126K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 54.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 426 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 56.0%, draws 0.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 169 Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 85K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 260K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 86K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.5% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.