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Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation

433K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.4%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.5%Based on 433K games
0%51.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.5%
Outcome Distribution
49.5%3.8%46.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c3
Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation
Analyzen=433K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 51.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 51.5%), based on 433K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 49% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.7% win rate (3,618 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.4% win rate (12,386 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.9% win rate (34,645 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.0% win rate (79,774 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (126,102 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.5% win rate (122,637 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.0% win rate (46,286 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.0% win rate (7,027 games)
  • 2500+: 54.6% win rate (426 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Rapid (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.0% win rate (169 games)
  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (84,782 games)
  • Blitz: 49.4% win rate (259,713 games)
  • Rapid: 48.9% win rate (85,719 games)
  • Classical: 50.0% win rate (2,518 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,792 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,480 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (343 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (5,222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (5,896 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (10,301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (19,311 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (4,913 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (96 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (17,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (47,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (14,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (503 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 74.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (20,134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (77,511 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (27,510 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (928 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (17,497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (76,602 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (27,658 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (875 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (9,123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (28,162 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (8,908 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (93 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (3,071 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (3,123 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.1% expected score (825 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (335 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 433K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (7.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms Classical (50.0%) by 0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 50.7%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 426 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-62.2%) win rate for white (169 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white (85K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate for white (260K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.2%) win rate for white (86K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Steinitz Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.