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Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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6.Bxf7+
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.0%

40%55%
Floor45.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.7%.

Measured over 16K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
16K
Best context
48.6% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
39.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.1 · Trap factor: −0.5 · 16K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 66.2% at 0-999, 48.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (108 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (424 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,295 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (211 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,132 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (3,622 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,591 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (3,022 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (222 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,323 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (330 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice scores 46.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.4% and 46.7% — from 16K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
16K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice, White wins 44.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 58.6% (233 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 43.7% in Blitz (8.8K games) against 49.8% in Rapid (956 games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 57.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 233 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 623 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 47.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 43.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 41.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 41.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 956 Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Bishop Sacrifice is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 44.4% of its games and loses 52.4%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.