Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation
12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.4%.
Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 12K
- Best context
- 59.1% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.9% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 63.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (146 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (320 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 69.2% expected score (137 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (265 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (540 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (324 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (542 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (831 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 67.4% expected score (393 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.3% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (686 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,069 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (440 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 72.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (671 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,033 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (473 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (585 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (981 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (278 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.6% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (421 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (713 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (113 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (289 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (543 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (164 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (110 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 79.4% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation scores 54.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.9% and 55.4% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation, White wins 52.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 12K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 62.2% (603 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.4% in Blitz (6.1K games) against 61.4% in Rapid (2.2K games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation?
The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 60.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.2%. It rests on 603 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 58.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 58.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.9%, draws 7.9% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 861 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.7%, draws 9.3% and loses 36.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 294 Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 59.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.4%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 69.6%, draws 7.4% and loses 23.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 73.3%. It rests on 140 Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.9% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.