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Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation

9.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Ng5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.6%

45%60%
Floor52.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.4%.

Measured over 9.8K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.8K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.8K
Best context
55.5% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Worst context
50.4% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.8 · Trap factor: +16.5 · 9.8K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.2% at 0-999, 78.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499———
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (752 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (1,587 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (765 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (549 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (1,469 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (685 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (498 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (881 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (571 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (459 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (429 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (281 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (105 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation scores 53.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.7% and 54.4% — from 9.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 9.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (2.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.9% in Blitz (4.5K games) against 53.1% in Rapid (2.4K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.3%, draws 2.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 53.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 489 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 190 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 58.7%, draws 1.3% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 110 Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch, Locock Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.1% of its games and loses 45.0%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.