Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation
1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.6%.
Measured over 1.9K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.9K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.2% at 0-999, 47.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (29 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (47 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (26 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (53 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (86 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 73.8% expected score (28 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (137 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (137 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (52 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (179 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (183 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (124 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (124 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (111 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (100 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (71 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (111 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.1% expected score (62 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (80 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 55.6% — from 1.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 57.6% (169 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.9% in Blitz (879 games) against 55.2% in Rapid (209 games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation?
The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 54.6%, draws 8.2% and loses 37.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 55.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 169 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 333 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.7%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 408 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 284 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 233 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.5%, draws 13.4% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 189 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.2%, draws 9.3% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 144 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 795 Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 879 Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.5%, draws 7.4% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 209 Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 51.2% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.