Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6
10.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.
Measured over 10.0K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10.0K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 10.0K
- Best context
- 54.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.2% at 0-999, 36.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 71.7% expected score (17 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (35 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (66 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (94 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (184 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (84 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (144 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (392 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (165 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (291 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (723 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (266 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (401 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (1,224 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (288 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (607 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,656 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (235 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,048 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,241 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (497 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (97 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 scores 51.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 52.6% — from 10.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 10.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6, Black wins 49.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 10.0K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (1.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (5.6K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (1.2K games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.0%, draws 0.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 122 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 366 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 715 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 602 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Be2 and c6 is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.4% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.