Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation
19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.3%.
Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 19K
- Best context
- 52.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.1% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 53.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (29 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.1% expected score (40 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (52 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (123 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (49 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (137 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (283 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (96 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (197 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (464 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (197 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (433 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (1,264 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (255 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (918 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,315 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (551 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (1,243 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (4,308 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (619 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,578 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (2,119 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (305 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (376 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (116 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation scores 48.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.1% and 49.3% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation, White wins 46.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 58.4% (224 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (12K games) against 51.2% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation?
The Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 57.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 224 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 522 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 872 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 45.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 45.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 45.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 494 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation, Krause Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.9% of its games and loses 49.5%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.