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Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.4%

40%55%
Floor45.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.

Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
41K
Best context
49.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
42.1% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −8.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 14.8% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.9% at 0-999, 46.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 71.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (1,396 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (1,702 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (763 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.1% expected score (53 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (2,365 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (2,835 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (1,263 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (3,451 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (3,608 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (1,603 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (3,631 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (3,555 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (1,454 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (3,356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (2,810 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (726 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (2,162 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,862 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 15.2% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,079 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 30.6% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (275 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (31 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit scores 45.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.0% and 45.8% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit, Black wins 43.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 47.3% (3.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.9% in Blitz (17K games) against 42.8% in Rapid (6.2K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit?

The Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 321 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 53.1%, draws 1.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 382 Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 35.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 60.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 237 Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Philidor Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.8% of its games and loses 53.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.