Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line
3.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.1%.
Measured over 3.9K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.9K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.9K
- Best context
- 56.8% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 55.1% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.5%
- Draws
- 5.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1000-1199, 55.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (68 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (278 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (226 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (911 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (111 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (522 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (991 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (80 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (401 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (193 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line scores 57.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.5% and 59.1% — from 3.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line, White wins 55.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 3.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 63.4% (601 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 56.4% in Blitz (2.4K games) against 61.7% in Rapid (252 games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 55.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 388 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 59.3%, draws 8.0% and loses 32.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.4%. It rests on 601 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 57.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 38.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.5%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 57.0%, draws 9.3% and loses 33.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 252 Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Forcing Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.0% of its games and loses 39.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.