Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6
25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.
Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 25K
- Best context
- 57.3% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 59.0% at 0-999, 35.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (39 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (96 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (137 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (274 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (130 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (220 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (693 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (327 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (385 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,375 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (653 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (51 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (644 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,950 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (1,060 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (91 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (883 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (3,041 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (858 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (74 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (1,275 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (3,560 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (566 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,797 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,833 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (270 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (910 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (746 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 15.2% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 scores 51.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 51.7% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6, Black wins 49.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 59.1% (158 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.9% in Blitz (15K games) against 48.7% in Rapid (3.9K games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 57.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 158 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 543 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.2%, draws 7.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 258 Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Lion's Claw, with Bc4 and h6 is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.0% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.