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Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation

162K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%Based on 162K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.1%4.1%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...g6
Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation
Analyzen=162K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.4%), based on 162K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 57%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.1% win rate (2,659 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.6% win rate (7,695 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.9% win rate (19,600 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.7% win rate (36,473 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (45,014 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.0% win rate (33,704 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.6% win rate (11,737 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (4,881 games)
  • 2500+: 57.4% win rate (503 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.1% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 51.2% win rate (26,815 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (98,833 games)
  • Rapid: 51.4% win rate (35,297 games)
  • Classical: 53.2% win rate (1,311 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (648 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,572 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (433 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,907 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (4,638 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (4,141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (11,805 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (3,609 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (6,462 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (22,997 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (6,800 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (6,045 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (28,078 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (10,398 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (491 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (4,471 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (19,334 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (9,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (6,798 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (3,114 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (1,113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,383 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (380 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (268 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 65.7% expected score (228 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 162K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (12K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.4%) outperforms Bullet (51.2%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 53.7%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.7%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.2%) win rate for white (99K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-55.5%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.