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Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation

162K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.9%

40%55%
Floor46.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.

Measured over 162K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 162K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
162K
Best context
50.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
42.1% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.4% at 0-999, 45.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (648 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,572 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (433 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,907 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (4,638 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (11,805 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (3,609 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (6,462 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (22,997 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (6,800 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (6,045 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (28,078 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (10,398 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (491 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (4,471 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (19,334 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (9,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (463 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (1,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (6,798 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (3,114 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (1,113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (3,383 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (380 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (268 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.3% expected score (228 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation
45.8%
Philidor Defense: Hanham Variation
46.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
53.4%
Philidor Defense: Morphy Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.7% and 47.1% — from 162K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
162K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate?

Playing the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 162K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.0% (2.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (99K games) against 46.1% in Rapid (35K games).

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 34.4%, draws 8.2% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.5%. It rests on 503 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 99K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

Is the Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Larsen Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.8% of its games and loses 51.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.