Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit
15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.9%.
Measured over 15K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 15K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 15K
- Best context
- 58.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 54.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.4% at 0-999, 49.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (30 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (52 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (116 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (434 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (469 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (1,768 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 65.5% expected score (86 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (1,937 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (5,055 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (243 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (2,769 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (1,686 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit scores 55.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.6% and 55.9% — from 15K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 15K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate?
Playing the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit, White wins 53.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 15K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit perform best?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 56.4% (2.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.7% in Blitz (9.0K games) against 57.1% in Rapid (394 games).
How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 575 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games.
What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 53.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 394 Lichess games.
Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit a good opening?
The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.1% of its games and loses 42.5%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.