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Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.3%Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 55.9%Based on 15K games
0%55.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 55.9%
Outcome Distribution
53.1%4.4%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.g4
Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 55.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.6% and 55.9%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.3% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 39% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.5% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (9 games)
  • 1400-1599: 42.4% win rate (28 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (97 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (575 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.8% win rate (2,336 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.1% win rate (7,268 games)
  • 2500+: 52.6% win rate (4,473 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in UltraBullet (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.3% win rate (32 games)
  • Bullet: 54.7% win rate (5,332 games)
  • Blitz: 52.1% win rate (9,016 games)
  • Rapid: 53.7% win rate (394 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (21 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199————
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (52 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (434 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (469 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (1,768 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 65.5% expected score (86 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (1,937 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (5,055 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (2,769 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (1,686 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.7%) outperforms Rapid (53.7%) by 1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 47.1%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 575 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.1%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.8%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.0%) win rate for white (9.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-57.8%) win rate for white (394 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Lion Variation, Shirov Gambit is statistically favors white with a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.