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Petrov's Defense

38 variations · 16M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Petrov's Defense gives White a 52.1% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 4.0%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.1%Aggregated from 38 variations
0%52.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.1%
ContextOverall · n=16M
Outcome Distribution
50.2%3.8%46.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nxe4
Petrov's Defense
Variations38
Games (Context)16M
Avg Length31 moves
Draw Rate3.8%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz VariationTop Pick
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 exd4 4.e5 Ne4 5.Qe2
Min adv +13.9% · n=816
59.8%
#2Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4 Nxe4 4.Bd3
Min adv +10.8% · n=88K
55.7%
#3Petrov's Defense: Nimzowitsch Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.Nc3
Min adv +7.0% · n=167K
53.7%
#4Petrov's Defense: Kaufmann Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.c4
Min adv +7.0% · n=8.0K
54.4%
#5Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4
Min adv +6.4% · n=157K
53.4%
#6Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.d4
Min adv +6.3% · n=1.3M
53.2%
#7Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nf3 Nxe4 5.d4 d5 6.Bd3 Nc6 7.O-O Be7 8.c4 Nb4 9.Be2
Min adv +6.1% · n=3.4K
54.4%
#8Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit, Center Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nxe5 d6 4.Nxf7 Kxf7 5.d4
Min adv +5.5% · n=28K
53.3%
#9Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Bc4
Min adv +4.9% · n=3.6M
52.5%
#10Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nf6 3.Nc3
Min adv +4.2% · n=4.3M
52.1%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Petrov's Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Petrov's Defense family has a 52.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 52.1%), aggregated from 38 variations and 16M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.4% win rate (2,002,186 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.7% win rate (2,295,997 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.6% win rate (2,843,814 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.9% win rate (3,125,797 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.4% win rate (2,743,299 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.0% win rate (1,882,376 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (910,570 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.3% win rate (405,495 games)
  • 2500+: 45.3% win rate (83,418 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in Bullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.4% win rate (37,195 games)
  • Bullet: 49.7% win rate (4,270,144 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (8,091,368 games)
  • Rapid: 51.1% win rate (3,745,301 games)
  • Classical: 53.2% win rate (148,944 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (2,171 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (374,798 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (892,495 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (725,614 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (7,108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (4,631 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (541,504 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,114,066 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (616,370 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (19,426 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (8,607 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (695,165 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,449,521 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (660,798 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (29,723 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (9,867 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (769,376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,595,073 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (707,201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (44,280 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (5,531 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (701,688 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,438,550 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (566,498 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (31,032 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (3,736 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (559,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (978,859 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (326,599 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (13,573 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (1,900 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (351,483 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (438,854 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (115,394 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (2,939 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (650 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (218,678 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (160,541 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (24,999 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (627 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (57,843 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (23,409 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (1,828 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (236 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (38)

1
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation779K games
60.5%
2
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Steinitz Variation816 games
59.8%
3
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Variation88K games
55.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation, Chinese Gambit515 games
58.1%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Tarrasch Variation302 games
59.1%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason Variation20K games
54.6%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Symmetrical Variation89K games
54.0%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Closed Variation28K games
54.1%
Petrov's Defense: Nimzowitsch Attack167K games
53.7%
Petrov's Defense: Kaufmann Attack8.0K games
54.4%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Staunton Variation33K games
53.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack157K games
53.4%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack1.3M games
53.2%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Main Line3.4K games
54.4%
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit, Center Variation28K games
53.3%
Petrov's Defense: Italian Variation3.6M games
52.5%
Petrov's Defense: Three Knights Game4.3M games
52.1%
Petrov's Defense: Cozio Attack311K games
51.8%
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit26K games
52.1%
Petrov's Defense3.0M games
51.0%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Jaenisch Variation4.6K games
52.1%
Petrov's Defense: Cochrane Gambit, Bishop Check Line57K games
51.1%
Petrov's Defense: French Attack127K games
50.9%
Petrov's Defense: Damiano Variation, Kholmov Gambit183K games
50.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation, Browne Attack1.9K games
52.1%
Petrov's Defense: Millennium Attack27K games
50.7%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Variation47K games
50.6%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Center Attack36K games
50.5%
Petrov's Defense: Karklins-Martinovsky Variation33K games
50.4%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Mason-Showalter Variation16K games
50.2%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Trifunovic Variation1.6K games
51.5%
Petrov's Defense: Paulsen Attack66K games
49.4%
Petrov's Defense: Modern Attack, Murrey Variation4.6K games
50.1%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Chigorin Variation7.3K games
49.6%
Petrov's Defense: Stafford Gambit1.8M games
48.0%
Petrov's Defense: Moody Gambit5.2K games
47.5%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Berger Variation589 games
45.3%
Petrov's Defense: Classical Attack, Marshall Trap136 games
16.5%
Analyze Petrov's Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Petrov's Defense win rate?

The Petrov's Defense family has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, aggregated from 38 variations and 16M rated games from Lichess.

How many Petrov's Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 38 Petrov's Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Petrov's Defense perform best?

The Petrov's Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (2.3M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Petrov's Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.2%) outperforms Bullet (49.7%) by 3.5% across all Petrov's Defense variations.

How sharp is the Petrov's Defense?

Petrov's Defense games are 96.2% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Petrov's Defense a good opening family?

The Petrov's Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 38 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.