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Analyzer

Semi-Slav Defense

44 variations · 9.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Semi-Slav Defense leaves Black at 46.6% — consider alternatives.

The minimum advantage of -6.9% suggests this opening underperforms statistically at your level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 46.6%Aggregated from 44 variations
0%46.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.6% – 46.6%
ContextOverall · n=9.1M
Outcome Distribution
44.2%4.7%51.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...e6
Semi-Slav Defense
Variations44
Games (Context)9.1M
Avg Length36 moves
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

Overall, the Semi-Slav Defense family has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.6% and 46.6%), aggregated from 44 variations and 9.1M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.0% win rate (55,407 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (183,271 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.4% win rate (443,792 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.4% win rate (908,016 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (1,678,161 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (2,423,686 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.7% win rate (2,018,325 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.0% win rate (1,119,222 games)
  • 2500+: 33.6% win rate (222,057 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.3% win rate (11,835 games)
  • Bullet: 44.6% win rate (3,777,056 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (4,423,880 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (803,859 games)
  • Classical: 39.8% win rate (35,307 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (21,305 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (26,862 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (7,032 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (371 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (76,319 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (83,613 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (22,653 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (315 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (1,208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (180,475 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (206,333 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (54,288 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (1,488 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (3,140 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (357,493 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (437,360 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (105,246 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (4,777 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.7% expected score (4,361 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (640,045 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (850,365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (173,488 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (9,902 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.0% expected score (1,926 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (884,618 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,295,692 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (230,233 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (11,217 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (516 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (834,842 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,021,298 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (156,841 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (4,828 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (143 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (619,989 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (450,484 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (47,363 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (1,243 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (161,970 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (51,873 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6,715 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (1,493 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (44)

1
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Szabo Variation2.7K games
55.6%
2
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation277 games
58.6%
3
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Alatortsev System2.5K games
54.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation14K games
51.6%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation, Abrahams Variation11K games
51.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Sozin Variation260 games
55.0%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation62K games
49.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation3.2K games
50.3%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation28K games
49.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Normal Variation229K games
48.7%
Semi-Slav Defense: Stonewall Defense9.1K games
49.4%
Semi-Slav Defense Accepted96K games
48.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation357K games
48.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation2.1K games
49.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation88K games
47.6%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Old Variation1.7K games
49.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order2.8M games
47.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Chigorin Defense133K games
47.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Forgotten Variation18K games
47.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Rubinstein System4.8K games
47.9%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation74K games
46.9%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubow Variation72K games
46.7%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line28K games
46.9%
Semi-Slav Defense2.8M games
46.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit123K games
46.3%
Semi-Slav Defense: Main Line1.3M games
46.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation60K games
46.0%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation, Anti-Noteboom Variation, Belyavsky Line12K games
46.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation3.5K games
46.3%
Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Shabalov Attack14K games
45.6%
Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation1.2K games
47.1%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Pirc Variation238 games
49.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit456K games
44.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation, Anti-Noteboom Gambit18K games
45.0%
Semi-Slav Defense: Romih Variation31K games
44.6%
Semi-Slav Defense: Quiet Variation102K games
43.7%
Semi-Slav Defense: Semi-Meran Variation12K games
43.3%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Reynolds' Variation2.2K games
43.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit3.3K games
43.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Blumenfeld Variation1.6K games
43.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Kaidanov Gambit212 games
46.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Gunderam Gambit11K games
40.9%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation, Anti-Noteboom Variation35K games
40.3%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Ekstrom Variation3.8K games
37.7%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense family has a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, aggregated from 44 variations and 9.1M rated games from Lichess.

How many Semi-Slav Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 44 Semi-Slav Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense family performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.3% win rate for white (1.1M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (57.0%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 8.0% across all Semi-Slav Defense variations.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense?

Semi-Slav Defense games are 95.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 36 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense a good opening family?

The Semi-Slav Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.1% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.1%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 44 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.