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Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line

28K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.2%

45%60%
Floor52.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.7%.

Measured over 28K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 19.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
28K
Best context
56.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
48.3% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
80.5%
Draws
19.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.7% · Blitz best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.8% at 0-999, 55.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (66 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (77 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (138 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (278 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (523 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (174 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (674 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (269 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (4,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,014 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (7,080 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (552 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (3,742 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,854 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (660 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (220 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Main Line
51.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit
53.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation
49.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Normal Variation
48.8%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line scores 53.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.7% and 53.7% — from 28K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
28K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line, White wins 43.4%, draws 19.5% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 28K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (9.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (17K games) against 52.3% in Rapid (2.5K games).

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 80.5 (moderately decisive), meaning 80.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 145 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 290 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 434 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 565 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 991 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 24.3%, draws 58.2% and loses 17.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 50 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 38.2%, draws 30.1% and loses 31.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.7%, draws 12.9% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 39.2%, draws 26.0% and loses 34.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 33.0%, draws 50.2% and loses 16.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 358 Lichess games.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 43.4% of its games and loses 37.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.