Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit
456K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.6%.
Measured over 456K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 456K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 456K
- Best context
- 64.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 51.6% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.7% at 0-999, 63.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,276 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (2,384 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (838 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 69.3% expected score (27 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (3,665 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (6,099 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (1,969 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (98 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (6,849 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (11,296 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (4,083 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (142 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (305 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (12,921 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (20,524 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (6,241 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.1% expected score (325 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (221 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (24,708 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (42,594 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (10,235 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (589 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (36 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (39,125 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (79,423 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (13,303 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (599 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (40,893 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (65,309 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (9,551 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (164 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (23,711 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (19,535 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (1,976 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 69.2% expected score (35 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (4,027 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (1,093 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (53 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit scores 55.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.4% and 55.6% — from 456K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 456K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate?
Playing the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 456K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit perform best?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 60.3% (5.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 55.8% in Blitz (248K games) against 56.2% in Rapid (48K games).
How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 56.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.8%, draws 11.0% and loses 34.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 53.1%, draws 0.8% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 709 Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 157K Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 248K Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 53.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 56.3%, draws 6.2% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit a good opening?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.5% of its games and loses 42.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.