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Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation

277 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score58.6%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 63.4%Based on 277 games
0%58.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 63.4%
Outcome Distribution
55.8%5.6%38.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Qxg2
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation
Analyzen=277
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.6%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 58.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 63.4%), based on 277 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 46%

1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1600-1799: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.1% win rate (19 games)
  • 2000-2199: 62.6% win rate (100 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.1% win rate (130 games)
  • 2500+: 45.5% win rate (26 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (71%), worst in Rapid (48%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 61.0% win rate (19 games)
  • Blitz: 55.2% win rate (244 games)
  • Rapid: 48.1% win rate (12 games)
  • Classical: 71.4% win rate (2 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199—————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599—————
1600-1799————
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 64.8% expected score (90 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Main Line
51.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit
53.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation
49.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Normal Variation
48.8%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 38.6% (90% CI: 33.9%-43.4%) win rate for white, based on 277 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.5% win rate for white (130 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 34.0% (90% CI: 26.5%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 100 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 37.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 130 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 35.0%-45.3%) win rate for white (244 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit, Tolush Variation is slightly favors black with a 38.6% (90% CI: 33.9%-43.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.