TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit

3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score56.7%Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 58.1%Based on 3.3K games
0%56.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 58.1%
Outcome Distribution
54.1%5.1%40.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.g4
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit
Analyzen=3.3K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 56.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.2% and 58.1%), based on 3.3K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +13.4% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 11% → 56%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 11.1% win rate (3 games)
  • 1000-1199: 63.6% win rate (4 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.4% win rate (22 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.0% win rate (90 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (367 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (842 games)
  • 2200-2499: 55.8% win rate (1,588 games)
  • 2500+: 55.7% win rate (342 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (60%), worst in Classical (33%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.2% win rate (1,218 games)
  • Blitz: 53.7% win rate (1,941 games)
  • Rapid: 60.4% win rate (107 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (3 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199————
1200-1399——
1400-1599———
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (215 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (223 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (581 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (601 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (967 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (245 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.8% expected score (96 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Meran Variation
50.4%
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Moscow Gambit
48.2%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Bogoljubow Variation
51.0%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (60.4%) outperforms Bullet (54.2%) by 6.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 45.0%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 367 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 49.3%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 842 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 55.8% (90% CI: 53.8%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 342 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-56.5%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.5%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit has a 60.4% (90% CI: 52.6%-68.0%) win rate for white (107 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Anti-Noteboom, Stonewall Variation, Portisch Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-55.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.