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Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation

88K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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9.Nxg5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.4%

45%60%
Floor52.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.7%.

Measured over 88K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 88K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
88K
Best context
58.5% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context
48.4% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.2% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.7% at 0-999, 53.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (156 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (521 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (406 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (1,387 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (962 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (3,064 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,523 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (593 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (5,641 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (5,445 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,063 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (8,366 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (9,799 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,661 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (122 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (7,721 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (11,520 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,690 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (7,664 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (10,118 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (955 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (3,502 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,519 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (303 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (118 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Semi-Slav Defense
51.5%
Variations (5)
Semi-Slav Defense: Accelerated Move Order
50.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Main Line
51.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Marshall Gambit
53.5%
Semi-Slav Defense: Noteboom Variation
49.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Normal Variation
48.8%
Continuations (4)
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation
35.7%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Ekstrom Variation
59.9%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Szabo Variation
41.8%
Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Alatortsev System
44.2%
Analyze Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.1% and 52.7% — from 88K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
88K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate?

Playing the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, White wins 49.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 88K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation perform best?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 58.4% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (42K games) against 51.9% in Rapid (6.7K games).

How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 55.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 318 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 57.3%, draws 2.2% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 55.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 49.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 38.7%, draws 29.4% and loses 31.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 48.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 42K Lichess games.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.6%, draws 8.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.

What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 38.9%, draws 29.9% and loses 31.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 455 Lichess games.

Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation a good opening?

The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.6% of its games and loses 44.8%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.