Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation
1.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.3%.
Measured over 1.2K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 8.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.2K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.8%
- Draws
- 8.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 64.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (52 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (107 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (30 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (248 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (98 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (269 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 65.1% expected score (78 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (43 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation scores 52.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 55.3% — from 1.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate?
Playing the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation, White wins 48.8%, draws 8.2% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 1.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation perform best?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 64.4% (127 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.3% in Blitz (747 games) against 51.5% in Rapid (133 games).
How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.4%, draws 10.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 160 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 44.6%, draws 8.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 345 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 8.1% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 398 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 59.5%, draws 9.7% and loses 30.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.4%. It rests on 127 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 271 Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 747 Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.7%, draws 11.5% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 133 Lichess games.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation a good opening?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Stoltz Variation, Center Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.8% of its games and loses 43.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.