Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation
2.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.0%.
Measured over 2.1K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 13.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.1K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.1K
- Best context
- 49.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 44 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 86.2%
- Draws
- 13.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1200-1399, 48.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (55 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (55 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (256 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (166 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (879 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (78 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (266 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (216 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (59 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.4% and 51.0% — from 2.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation win rate?
Playing the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation, Black wins 42.3%, draws 13.8% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation perform best?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.3% (349 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (1.4K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (178 games).
How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation has a sharpness score of 86.2 (moderately decisive), meaning 86.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 44 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.1%, draws 8.4% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 349 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.3%, draws 8.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 31.6%, draws 30.4% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 550 Lichess games, which average 55 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 40.5%, draws 16.7% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 506 Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.1%, draws 10.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 34.8%, draws 27.6% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 178 Lichess games.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation a good opening?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Wade Variation, Larsen Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.3% of its games and loses 43.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.