Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation
3.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.
Measured over 3.2K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 11.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.2K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.2K
- Best context
- 50.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 48.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 41 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 88.7%
- Draws
- 11.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 78.6% at 0-999, 47.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (56 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (111 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (35 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (123 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (336 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (85 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 83.3% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (106 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (655 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (139 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (284 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (555 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (89 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (222 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (203 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (50 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation scores 50.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 51.7% — from 3.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate?
Playing the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation, Black wins 44.6%, draws 11.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 3.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation perform best?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 61.9% (91 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.1% in Blitz (1.9K games) against 52.2% in Rapid (422 games).
How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation has a sharpness score of 88.7 (moderately decisive), meaning 88.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 207 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.1%, draws 7.0% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 550 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 6.3% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 913 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.3%, draws 9.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 934 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 33.7%, draws 33.5% and loses 32.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 486 Lichess games, which average 52 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.6%, draws 8.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 839 Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.4%, draws 11.4% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.7%, draws 15.0% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 422 Lichess games.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation a good opening?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Meran Variation, Lundin Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.6% of its games and loses 44.1%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.