Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation
14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.
Measured over 14K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 25.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 14K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 14K
- Best context
- 52.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 42 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 74.5%
- Draws
- 25.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1000-1199, 51.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 61.0% expected score (35 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (136 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (432 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (26 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (374 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,142 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (152 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,444 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (3,788 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (303 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (2,920 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (1,380 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (371 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (111 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation scores 48.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.8% and 49.2% — from 14K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 14K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate?
Playing the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation, White wins 35.7%, draws 25.5% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 14K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation perform best?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (4.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (7.8K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (869 games).
How sharp is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation has a sharpness score of 74.5 (drawish), meaning 74.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 42 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 43.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 600 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 44.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 17.3%, draws 64.4% and loses 18.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 57 moves.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 26.6%, draws 39.2% and loses 34.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 41.8%, draws 14.8% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 34.4%, draws 36.4% and loses 29.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 869 Lichess games.
What is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 22.3%, draws 65.0% and loses 12.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 153 Lichess games.
Is the Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation a good opening?
The Semi-Slav Defense: Botvinnik Variation, Lilienthal Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 35.7% of its games and loses 38.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.