Bird Opening
27 variations · 19M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
51.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 19M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #28 of 56
- Games in this context
- 19M
- Best context
- 57.1% at 2500+ Rapid
- Worst context
- 36.8% at 0-999 Classical
- Variations measured
- 27
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.0% at 0-999, 55.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (2,360 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (209,108 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (299,420 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (135,550 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (1,868 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (7,476 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (317,549 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (407,158 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (134,956 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (4,388 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (12,968 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (626,414 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (702,466 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (175,549 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (7,924 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (25,528 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,134,343 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,268,593 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (271,406 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (16,195 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (54,245 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,734,520 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (2,068,390 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (366,761 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (19,581 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (16,589 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (2,019,709 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,306,734 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (406,409 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (12,621 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (5,358 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,612,485 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,258,968 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (151,312 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (2,925 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (1,323 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (1,122,987 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (296,064 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (26,644 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (357 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (214 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (172,555 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (18,463 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (1,156 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (113 games)
27 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening family scores 51.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.7% and 51.8% — from 19M Lichess games across 27 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bird Opening win rate?
Across the Bird Opening's 27 variations, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 19M rated games from Lichess.
How many Bird Opening variations are there?
27 Bird Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Bird Opening perform best?
The Bird Opening family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 53.6% (193K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Bird Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Bird Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.7% in Blitz (8.6M games) against 50.5% in Rapid (1.7M games).
How sharp is the Bird Opening?
Bird Opening games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Bird Opening a good opening family?
The Bird Opening family is about level overall. Across its games, White wins 49.9% and loses 46.5%. Results differ between its 27 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.