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Bird Opening

27 variations · 19M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Bird Opening is balanced for White at 51.7% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.8%Aggregated from 27 variations
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.8%
ContextOverall · n=19M
Outcome Distribution
49.9%3.7%46.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
1.f4
Bird Opening
Variations27
Games (Context)19M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate3.7%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Bird Opening: Thomas GambitTop Pick
1.f4 d5 2.b3 Nf6 3.Bb2 d4 4.Nf3 c5 5.e3
Min adv +6.2% · n=1.5K
55.2%
#2Bird Opening
1.f4
Min adv +3.9% · n=9.9M
52.0%
#3Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit
1.f4 d5 2.c4
Min adv +2.9% · n=87K
51.8%
#4Bird Opening: Wagner-Zwitersch Gambit
1.f4 f5 2.e4
Min adv +2.9% · n=60K
51.8%
#5Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Bahr Gambit
1.f4 e5 2.Nc3
Min adv +1.1% · n=37K
51.0%
#6Bird Opening: Siegener Gambit
1.f4 e5 2.d4 exd4 3.Nf3 c5 4.c3
Min adv -0.1% · n=397
54.1%
#7Bird Opening: Williams-Zilbermints Gambit
1.f4 d5 2.e4 dxe4 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.Nge2
Min adv -0.4% · n=37K
50.2%
#8Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
1.f4 d5 2.e4
Min adv -3.3% · n=983K
48.5%
#9Bird Opening: Swiss Gambit
1.f4 f5 2.e4 fxe4 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.g4
Min adv -3.6% · n=199
54.0%
#10Bird Opening: Mujannah
1.f4 Nf6 2.c4
Min adv -3.8% · n=20K
48.7%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Bird Opening expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Bird Opening family has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.7% and 51.8%), aggregated from 27 variations and 19M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.9% win rate (648,306 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.6% win rate (871,527 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (1,525,321 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (2,716,065 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (4,243,497 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.2% win rate (4,762,062 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (3,031,048 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.6% win rate (1,447,375 games)
  • 2500+: 49.7% win rate (192,501 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.0% win rate (126,061 games)
  • Bullet: 50.6% win rate (8,949,670 games)
  • Blitz: 49.5% win rate (8,626,256 games)
  • Rapid: 48.0% win rate (1,669,743 games)
  • Classical: 45.3% win rate (65,972 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (2,360 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (209,108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (299,420 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (135,550 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (1,868 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (7,476 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (317,549 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (407,158 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (134,956 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (4,388 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (12,968 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (626,414 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (702,466 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (175,549 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (7,924 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (25,528 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,134,343 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,268,593 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (271,406 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (16,195 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (54,245 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,734,520 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (2,068,390 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (366,761 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (19,581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (16,589 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (2,019,709 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,306,734 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (406,409 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (12,621 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (5,358 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (1,612,485 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,258,968 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (151,312 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (2,925 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (1,323 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (1,122,987 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (296,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (26,644 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (357 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (214 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (172,555 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (18,463 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (1,156 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (113 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (27)

1
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation171K games
54.1%
2
Bird Opening: Thomas Gambit1.5K games
55.2%
3
Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation66K games
53.3%
Bird Opening: Myers Defense28K games
53.2%
Bird Opening: Platz Gambit2.6K games
54.1%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation5.9M games
52.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation151K games
52.5%
Bird Opening9.9M games
52.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit286K games
52.1%
Bird Opening: Lasker Gambit43K games
52.0%
Bird Opening: Wagner-Zwitersch Gambit60K games
51.8%
Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit87K games
51.8%
Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit59K games
51.3%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Bahr Gambit37K games
51.0%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit1.5M games
50.2%
Bird Opening: Siegener Gambit397 games
54.1%
Bird Opening: Williams-Zilbermints Gambit37K games
50.2%
Bird Opening: Horsefly Defense30K games
48.9%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit983K games
48.5%
Bird Opening: Swiss Gambit199 games
54.0%
Bird Opening: Mujannah20K games
48.7%
Bird Opening: Hobbs-Zilbermints Gambit4.6K games
48.0%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit136K games
46.8%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lipke Variation578 games
49.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Langheld Gambit8.3K games
45.6%
Bird Opening: Batavo-Polish Attack360 games
46.3%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit33K games
29.1%
Analyze Bird Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening win rate?

The Bird Opening family has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, aggregated from 27 variations and 19M rated games from Lichess.

How many Bird Opening variations are there?

This analysis covers 27 Bird Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Bird Opening perform best?

The Bird Opening family performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (1.4M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Bird Opening better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (45.3%) by 5.3% across all Bird Opening variations.

How sharp is the Bird Opening?

Bird Opening games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Bird Opening a good opening family?

The Bird Opening family is statistically balanced overall with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 27 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.