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Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit

59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score48.7%Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 49.1%Based on 59K games
0%48.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.4% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.1%3.3%49.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...g5
Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit
Analyzen=59K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 48.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 49.1%), based on 59K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +1.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.5% win rate (1,552 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.7% win rate (1,736 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.9% win rate (2,904 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (5,539 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.4% win rate (10,312 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.5% win rate (14,515 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.1% win rate (12,404 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.2% win rate (8,869 games)
  • 2500+: 43.1% win rate (1,636 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.2% win rate (1,135 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (28,212 games)
  • Blitz: 46.1% win rate (25,608 games)
  • Rapid: 44.5% win rate (4,337 games)
  • Classical: 41.6% win rate (175 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (551 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (721 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (259 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (602 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (813 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (280 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (371 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,984 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,742 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (635 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (549 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (3,712 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (5,077 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (916 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (222 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (5,864 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (7,127 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (6,021 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (5,755 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (527 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (6,891 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,849 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 25.7% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,501 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (118 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 59K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit perform best?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (5.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.3%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-53.4%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.6%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.5%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.5%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.4%-55.8%) win rate for white (175 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

Is the Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Hobbs Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.