Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
5.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 5.9M games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.9M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.9M
- Best context
- 64.7% at 0-999 Classical
- Worst context
- 43.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.0% at 0-999, 44.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.0% expected score (361 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (64,171 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (92,113 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (41,007 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (544 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (1,235 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (92,699 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (137,672 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (47,111 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (1,478 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (1,887 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (181,493 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (232,894 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (63,020 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (2,570 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (3,443 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (318,319 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (423,829 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (96,742 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (5,801 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (7,053 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (479,755 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (694,643 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (128,555 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (6,973 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (2,202 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (536,823 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (766,119 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (144,084 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (4,629 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (614 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (404,927 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (402,200 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (54,631 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (1,226 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (173 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (264,475 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (99,793 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (10,458 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (177 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (41,890 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (7,764 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (641 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (48 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation scores 47.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 47.7% — from 5.9M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.9M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate?
Playing the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 5.9M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation perform best?
The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.6% (198K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (2.9M games) against 49.4% in Rapid (586K games).
How sharp is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation?
The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 198K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 280K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 482K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 848K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 864K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 375K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.9%, draws 10.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 2.4M Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 2.9M Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 586K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 49.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.
Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation a good opening?
The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.6% of its games and loses 50.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.