Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit

33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
2.g4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

29.1%

25%55%
Floor28.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 29.5%.

Measured over 33K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 33K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
33K
Best context
37.3% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
14.2% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Average game length
25 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −39.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 19.4% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 30.4% at 0-999, 24.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.4% expected score (2,345 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.8% expected score (4,015 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 25.7% expected score (2,226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 24.3% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.4% expected score (1,803 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.4% expected score (2,559 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.6% expected score (1,145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 20.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 37.3% expected score (1,980 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (2,269 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 26.0% expected score (994 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 23.7% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 25.6% expected score (62 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 29.0% expected score (2,143 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 26.0% expected score (2,370 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 14.2% expected score (1,038 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 9.9% expected score (219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.2% expected score (1,546 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (1,765 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 18.9% expected score (402 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 12.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 33.3% expected score (938 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 26.1% expected score (1,091 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 21.1% expected score (263 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.2% expected score (546 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 23.4% expected score (563 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 28.3% expected score (95 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 31.1% expected score (265 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 14.1% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 10.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit scores 29.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 28.7% and 29.5% — from 33K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
33K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate?

Playing the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit, White wins 27.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 69.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 29.1%. It rests on 33K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit perform best?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 31.5% (5.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 28.9% in Blitz (15K games) against 22.5% in Rapid (6.2K games).

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 25 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 27.1%, draws 5.9% and loses 67.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 30.1%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 27.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 68.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 29.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 29.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 67.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.5%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 23.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 74.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 24.4%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 29.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 67.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 31.1%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 27.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 70.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 28.4%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 27.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 68.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 29.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 24.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 71.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 26.6%. It rests on 404 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 32.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 64.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.1%. It rests on 243 Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 32.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 65.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 26.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 68.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 28.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 19.5%, draws 5.9% and loses 74.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 22.5%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 13.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 82.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 15.4%. It rests on 455 Lichess games.

Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 27.2% of its games and loses 69.0%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.