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Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation

151K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.7%Based on 151K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
45.9%3.3%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...g5
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation
Analyzen=151K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.3% and 47.7%), based on 151K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +16.7% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 63% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 62.8% win rate (125 games)
  • 1000-1199: 61.5% win rate (271 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.7% win rate (1,004 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.8% win rate (3,789 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.3% win rate (14,344 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (40,361 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.4% win rate (52,459 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.8% win rate (32,882 games)
  • 2500+: 40.5% win rate (6,006 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Blitz (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.2% win rate (180 games)
  • Bullet: 46.4% win rate (59,671 games)
  • Blitz: 45.1% win rate (82,168 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (8,843 games)
  • Classical: 48.5% win rate (379 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (95 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 72.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (152 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 69.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 65.7% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.0% expected score (377 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 72.5% expected score (72 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (1,765 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (1,711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 69.3% expected score (271 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (101 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (4,943 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (8,131 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (1,070 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (10,963 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (26,191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (3,006 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (179 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (16,184 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (32,867 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (3,319 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (73 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (19,591 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (12,221 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (1,051 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (5,427 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 34.9% expected score (557 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 18.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate?

The Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 151K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation perform best?

The Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (33K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (44.9%) by 6.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation?

The Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 36.8% (90% CI: 29.9%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 15 moves with a 0.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 36.5% (90% CI: 31.8%-41.4%) win rate for white, based on 271 Lichess games. Average game length is 19 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 37.8% (90% CI: 35.3%-40.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 39.1% (90% CI: 37.8%-40.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.9%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.7%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 38.9%-51.0%) win rate for white (180 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white (60K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.6%) win rate for white (82K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.9%) win rate for white (8.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-51.1%) win rate for white (379 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation a good opening?

The Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.