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Bird Opening: Lasker Variation

171K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.9%

40%55%
Floor45.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.1%.

Measured over 171K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 171K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
171K
Best context
49.8% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
44.1% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.6%
Draws
4.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.5% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.8% at 0-999, 46.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (288 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (430 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (144 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (743 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (894 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (267 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,003 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,206 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (467 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (5,000 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (5,575 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (1,120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (215 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (10,043 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (14,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (2,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (211 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (17,510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (26,365 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (5,132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (19,820 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (23,392 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (3,448 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (17,754 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (5,752 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (959 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,021 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (463 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (87 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation
50.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Lasker Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation scores 45.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.7% and 46.1% — from 171K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
171K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate?

Playing the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 171K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation perform best?

The Bird Opening: Lasker Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (864 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.8% in Blitz (79K games) against 49.4% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation?

The Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 864 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.2%, draws 17.0% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 0.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 394 Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 79K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.5%, draws 10.0% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 614 Lichess games.

Is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Lasker Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.7% of its games and loses 51.9%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.