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Analyzer

Bird Opening: Lasker Variation

171K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.9%Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.1%Based on 171K games
0%45.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
43.7%4.4%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
Analyzen=171K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 45.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 46.1%), based on 171K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.5% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.1% win rate (864 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.4% win rate (1,918 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.3% win rate (4,704 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.9% win rate (11,803 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.8% win rate (27,324 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.3% win rate (49,284 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.8% win rate (46,773 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.8% win rate (24,488 games)
  • 2500+: 37.2% win rate (3,588 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Bullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (394 games)
  • Bullet: 42.7% win rate (76,182 games)
  • Blitz: 44.2% win rate (79,373 games)
  • Rapid: 46.3% win rate (14,183 games)
  • Classical: 46.5% win rate (614 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (288 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (430 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (144 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (743 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (894 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (267 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,003 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,206 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (467 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (5,000 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (5,575 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (1,120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (215 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (10,043 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (14,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (2,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (211 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (17,510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (26,365 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (5,132 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (19,820 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (23,392 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (3,448 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (17,754 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (5,752 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (959 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,021 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (463 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (87 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation
50.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Lasker Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate?

The Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 171K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation perform best?

The Bird Opening: Lasker Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (47K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.0%) outperforms Classical (43.5%) by 10.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation?

The Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 864 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.5%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 17.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-53.8%) win rate for white (394 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.6%.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.2%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.0%) win rate for white (79K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.2%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 40.2%-46.8%) win rate for white (614 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.

Is the Bird Opening: Lasker Variation a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Lasker Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.