TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit

136K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%Based on 136K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.7%3.0%45.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...dxe4
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit
Analyzen=136K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 53.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.4%), based on 136K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +9.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.9% · UltraBullet best · Rapid worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.8% win rate (501 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.9% win rate (1,652 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.2% win rate (5,174 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.4% win rate (15,320 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (33,973 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.3% win rate (45,417 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.7% win rate (26,096 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.8% win rate (7,300 games)
  • 2500+: 46.2% win rate (333 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (68%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.8% win rate (139 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (63,762 games)
  • Blitz: 53.0% win rate (66,662 games)
  • Rapid: 55.5% win rate (5,112 games)
  • Classical: 67.6% win rate (91 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (293 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.2% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,105 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (448 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (84 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (3,353 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,607 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (185 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (8,463 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (6,383 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (423 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (14,334 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (18,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (1,204 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (18,656 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (24,621 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (2,094 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (12,842 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (12,333 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (907 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (4,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,713 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (304 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 136K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit perform best?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 49.5% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.7%) outperforms Classical (28.6%) by 19.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 42.4%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 501 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.1%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 42.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 333 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 44.0%-57.8%) win rate for white (139 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.0%) win rate for white (64K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.8%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a 41.0% (90% CI: 39.9%-42.2%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit is slightly favors black with a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.