Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit
136K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.4%.
Measured over 136K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 136K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 136K
- Best context
- 58.9% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 47.2% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.0% at 0-999, 39.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (293 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (160 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.2% expected score (41 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,105 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (448 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (84 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (3,353 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (1,607 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (185 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (8,463 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (6,383 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (423 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 83.3% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (14,334 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (18,375 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (1,204 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (18,656 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (24,621 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (2,094 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (12,842 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (12,333 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (907 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (4,412 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (2,713 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (168 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (304 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit scores 53.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.4% — from 136K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 136K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate?
Playing the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 136K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit perform best?
The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (45K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.8% in Blitz (67K games) against 57.3% in Rapid (5.1K games).
How sharp is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit?
The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 501 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 1.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 46.2%, draws 6.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 333 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 0.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 139 Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 64K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 53.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 67K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 55.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games.
Is the Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit a good opening?
The Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.7% of its games and loses 45.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.