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Bird Opening: Williams Gambit

983K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.5%

45%55%
Floor48.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.

Measured over 983K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 983K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
983K
Best context
52.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
39.6% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +0.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.8% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.2% at 0-999, 51.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (495 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (16,250 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (19,761 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (6,782 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (77 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (841 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (38,299 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (26,262 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (7,425 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 33.4% expected score (176 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (1,871 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (67,987 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (39,728 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (7,952 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.7% expected score (250 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (2,902 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (111,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (66,203 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (8,765 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (439 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (2,965 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (149,212 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (89,574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (7,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (302 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (542 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (152,176 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (52,110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (5,345 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (103 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (70,492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (11,058 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (990 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (15,105 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (832 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (721 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Lasker Variation
50.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Williams Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit scores 48.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.4% and 48.6% — from 983K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
983K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate?

Playing the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit, White wins 47.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 983K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit perform best?

The Bird Opening: Williams Gambit performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 50.8% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (306K games) against 43.8% in Rapid (44K games).

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit?

The Bird Opening: Williams Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 41.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 46.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 118K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 190K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 249K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 210K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 760 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 44.7%, draws 1.0% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 622K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 45.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 306K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 41.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 44K Lichess games.

What is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 34.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 62.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

Is the Bird Opening: Williams Gambit a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Williams Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.0% of its games and loses 50.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.