Bird Opening: From's Gambit
1.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 1.5M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.5M
- Best context
- 55.2% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 40.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.9%
- Draws
- 3.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.0% at 0-999, 39.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (405 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (22,487 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (23,942 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (14,113 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (207 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (1,440 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (27,009 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (24,310 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (8,022 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (335 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.9% expected score (2,252 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (48,232 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (38,982 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (9,053 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (494 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (3,948 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (83,621 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (68,354 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (12,763 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (864 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (6,535 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (131,047 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (121,745 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (18,672 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (982 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (2,604 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (155,752 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (181,781 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (27,373 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (866 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (1,026 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (137,078 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (121,014 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (13,340 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (232 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (319 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (103,397 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (26,376 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,283 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (16,736 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (1,132 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (26 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit scores 49.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.8% and 49.9% — from 1.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate?
Playing the Bird Opening: From's Gambit, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.5M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Bird Opening: From's Gambit perform best?
The Bird Opening: From's Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (61K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Bird Opening: From's Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.6% in Blitz (608K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (106K games).
How sharp is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit?
The Bird Opening: From's Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 170K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 279K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 368K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 273K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 725K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 608K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 106K Lichess games.
What is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 48.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.
Is the Bird Opening: From's Gambit a good opening?
The Bird Opening: From's Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.3% of its games and loses 48.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.