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Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit

87K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%60%
Floor51.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.

Measured over 87K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 87K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
87K
Best context
54.2% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
35.7% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 35.8% at 0-999, 53.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (1,161 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (581 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 23.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (987 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,686 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (777 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,603 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (3,940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (667 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (235 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2,781 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (6,711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,903 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (188 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (5,656 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (9,271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,439 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (8,984 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (13,505 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,688 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (7,698 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (6,025 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (792 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (3,307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (3,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (155 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: From's Gambit
48.6%
Bird Opening: Williams Gambit
47.0%
Bird Opening: Schlechter Gambit
50.6%
Bird Opening: Lasker Variation
51.9%
Analyze Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 51.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 52.1% — from 87K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
87K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 51.8% (range, 90% confident: 51.5% – 52.1%) for White, based on 87K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit perform best?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit performs best at 2500+, where it scores 58.2% for White (243 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, Bullet (52.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.2%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 39.0% (range, 90% confident: 37.5% – 40.6%) for White, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 48.1% (range, 90% confident: 46.7% – 49.5%) for White, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 50.0% (range, 90% confident: 49.0% – 51.0%) for White, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.1% – 50.6%) for White, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 53.2% (range, 90% confident: 52.6% – 53.9%) for White, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 53.1% (range, 90% confident: 52.6% – 53.6%) for White, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 52.8% (range, 90% confident: 52.1% – 53.5%) for White, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 52.7% (range, 90% confident: 51.8% – 53.7%) for White, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 58.2% (range, 90% confident: 53.0% – 63.3%) for White, based on 243 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 46.2% (range, 90% confident: 42.2% – 50.2%) for White (418 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 52.5% (range, 90% confident: 52.0% – 52.9%) for White (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 52.0% (range, 90% confident: 51.6% – 52.4%) for White (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 48.6% (range, 90% confident: 47.7% – 49.5%) for White (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit scores 48.0% (range, 90% confident: 44.2% – 51.8%) for White (470 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit is about level with a 50.1% (range, 90% confident: 49.8% – 50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.