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Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit

87K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.8%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 52.1%Based on 87K games
0%51.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 52.1%
Outcome Distribution
50.1%3.3%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.c4
Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit
Analyzen=87K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 51.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 52.1%), based on 87K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 37% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.7% win rate (2,577 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (3,485 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.9% win rate (6,253 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.2% win rate (11,818 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.7% win rate (16,586 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (24,248 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.2% win rate (14,592 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.3% win rate (7,051 games)
  • 2500+: 55.4% win rate (243 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.4% win rate (418 games)
  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (32,000 games)
  • Blitz: 50.1% win rate (45,962 games)
  • Rapid: 46.2% win rate (8,003 games)
  • Classical: 45.3% win rate (470 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (1,161 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (581 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 23.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (987 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,686 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (777 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,603 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (3,940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (667 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (235 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2,781 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (6,711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,903 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (188 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (5,656 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (9,271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,439 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (8,984 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (13,505 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,688 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (7,698 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (6,025 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (792 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (3,307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (3,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (155 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Bird Opening
50.1%
Variations (5)
Bird Opening: Batavo-Polish Attack
43.3%
Bird Opening: Double Duck Formation
50.1%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation
50.5%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Batavo Gambit
45.3%
Bird Opening: Dutch Variation, Dudweiler Gambit
27.2%
Analyze Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 87K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit perform best?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.7% win rate for white (17K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.4%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 36.7% (90% CI: 35.2%-38.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 55.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-60.6%) win rate for white, based on 243 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 41.4%-49.4%) win rate for white (418 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.8%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.5%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.1%) win rate for white (8.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 41.5%-49.1%) win rate for white (470 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit a good opening?

The Bird Opening: Sturm Gambit is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.